April 8, 2016 | By Alexander Soule
In a Friday morning speech at the University of Bridgeport, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said U.S. unemployment should drop to 4.75 percent if the economy maintains its current 2 percent growth pace this year, while predicting Fairfield County will eventually see a spillover effect from New York City’s supercharged economy.
Not since November 2007 has the jobless rate registered below 4.8 percent. In March, the U.S. unemployment rose slightly to 5.0 percent, while varying widely according to geographic and demographic considerations.
On Friday, New York Fed President Bill Dudley spoke to some 200 people at the Ernest C. Trefz School of Business at the University of Bridgeport before proceeding on an itinerary that included meetings with representatives of The WorkPlace and the American Job Center; the Bridgeport Regional Business Council; and neighborhood development groups including the Housing Development Fund, New Horizons and NeighborWorks America.
In an interview with Hearst, Dudley said he sees no surprise threats that could derail the steady growth the New York City region has experienced since the recession, in the way that sharply ballooning mortgage contracts did heading into 2008 when a wave of foreclosures stunted lending.
“We don’t see bad underwriting practices that you saw in mortgage underwriting,” Dudley said Friday. “Are there maybe pockets … where things are a little frothy? Perhaps, but nothing in terms of scope or magnitude comparable to then, so I think we feel we’re in pretty good shape.
“Household net worth has recovered along with the recovery in the stock market and the recovery in home prices,” Dudley added. “But I think the thing that is really (positive) is the debt levels — which had gotten a little high in the run-up to the financial crisis — have come down quite a bit.”
Longer term, Dudley said the biggest threat to the economy remains the baby boomer generation hitting retirement age, with the implications for financial security and health-care costs. At The WorkPlace, Dudley learned about the Platform to Employment program pioneered by CEO Joe Carbone that has since expanded to some 20 cities nationally, partnering with area corporations to offer job training and short employment stints for older workers, with the goal of helping them stick permanently in those positions.
“We’ll hear from businesses that are skittish about bringing on new talent because of the economy or the flexibility of that economy,” said Nestor Leon, vice president of operations for The WorkPlace. “This is an opportunity for them to bring them on under our auspices.”
In his prepared remarks earlier, Dudley noted New York City’s revitalization in the current expansion through technology and construction driven by new developments, and predicted Fairfield County would benefit in the same way it did in the mid-2000s when soaring rents drove some businesses to relocate to the suburbs; while acknowledging the impact of General Electric, Royal Bank of Scotland and UBS shipping out jobs.
“The strength in New York City’s economy should be of significant help to Fairfield County,” Dudley stated in his formal remarks. “Over the past year, New York City’s economy has, on average, added more than twice as many jobs each month as the total expected job losses from the relocations of GE, UBS and RBS. … As long as New York City keeps adding jobs at such a brisk pace, Fairfield County will benefit.”
Article Source: http://www.ctpost.com/business/article/In-Bridgeport-N-Y-Fed-president-predicts-7236394.php#photo-9772568